Gold Price Analysis for April 29, 2025

Gold’s opening price on April 29, 2025 stood at $3,313.31 per ounce, down 0.91% from the prior session. This Gold Price Analysis for April 29, 2025 unpacks the economic signals, geopolitical undercurrents, technical chart realities, and investor behaviors driving today’s pullback—and what traders should watch before the closing bell.

Economic Indicators Driving Gold Price Analysis for April 29, 2025

Inflation Trends and Fed Policy

U.S. inflation appears to be cooling: Consumer Price Index data for March showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, down from 2.8% in February and below market expectations Reuters. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has argued for holding rates at 4.25%–4.50% until upside inflation risks—driven by tariffs—subside Reuters. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance, warning that tariffs could keep inflation elevated even as growth softens Reuters.

U.S. Dollar Strength

Gold’s inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar weighed on bullion today. The DXY Dollar Index climbed 0.4%, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Elevated real yields on Treasury securities—buoyed by Fed rate confidence—have further dampened gold’s non-yielding appeal.

Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Shifts

Easing Trade Tensions

Monday’s rally in risk assets came as U.S.–China trade tensions showed tentative signs of cooling. Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about tariff exemptions on key imports dented safe-haven demand for gold Reuters. Yet Chinese officials later walked back progress reports, underscoring persistent uncertainty.

Broader Flashpoints

Meanwhile, the lingering Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed Middle East tensions continue to lurk in the background. Such crises historically ignite gold rallies, but today’s market reaction suggests traders have priced in much of the existing risk—until new flashpoints emerge.

Technical Analysis: Charting the $3,313.31 Opening Level

Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate support: $3,300 and $3,280, with a more robust floor near $3,260, where buyers stepped in last week Reuters.
• Key resistance: $3,330 (today’s opening pivot) and the psychological barrier at $3,350.

A decisive break below $3,280 could spur a deeper pullback to $3,250, while reclaiming $3,330 may trigger a short-squeeze toward $3,360–3,370.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Gold trades just below its 50-day moving average ($3,335) and well above its 200-day MA ($3,100), signaling a still-intact long-term uptrend despite today’s setback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits near 45, suggesting modest oversold conditions but room for further downside.

Market Sentiment: ETF Flows and Futures Positioning

ETF Inflows Highlight Institutional Demand

Physically backed gold ETFs drew $21.1 billion in Q1 2025—the largest quarterly inflow in three years—adding 226.5 metric tons of bullion Reuters. Chinese gold ETFs alone accounted for 29.1 tons in early April, outpacing Q1 totals as domestic investors sought protection from yuan weakness Reuters.

Futures and Open Interest

Open interest in COMEX gold futures remains elevated, with speculative net longs near multi-month highs. According to the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, “non-commercial” positions hold roughly 30% of open interest, a bullish tilt that may amplify price moves during heightened volatility CFTC.

Expectations Until Market Close

With no major U.S. macro releases until tomorrow’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), gold is likely to trade in a $3,300–3,330 range for the rest of Tuesday’s session. Key levels to watch:

• Bearish scenario: A slide below $3,300 could open $3,280 and test $3,260 support.
• Bullish scenario: A rebound above $3,330 may target $3,350 and $3,370.

Traders should monitor real-time Treasury yields and dollar index moves, as well as any late-breaking geopolitical headlines, for clues on end-of-day positioning.

Conclusion

This Gold Price Analysis for April 29, 2025 shows that today’s 0.91% decline to $3,313.31 reflects a confluence of moderating inflation, Fed policy patience, easing trade concerns, and technical resistance. Key strategies for market participants:

1. Track Fed-sensitive data: Inflation reports and JOLTS may shift rate-cut expectations.
2. Watch technical pivots: $3,300–3,330 is the critical near-term battleground.
3. Gauge ETF flows: Continued institutional inflows suggest enduring structural demand.

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