Gold prices continue to recover during trading on February 4, 2026, following a wave of sharp volatility over the past week. This rebound is driven by growing demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Movements are also influenced by factors related to U.S. Federal Reserve policy and market expectations regarding the interest-rate path, within the broader context of the global economy.
Market Snapshot
Gold Price Level: Around $5,000 per ounce, following a corrective rebound after last week’s sharp volatility.
The current price action reflects renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension and policy uncertainty, while markets reassess the medium-term interest-rate environment.
Market Condition: High Volatility / Repricing Phase
Global News and Indicators
International Tensions
Global geopolitical conditions witnessed new surprises after the United States announced the downing of an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. This development brought international security risks back to the forefront, thereby reinforcing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
U.S. Monetary and Political Policy
Concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve have escalated following statements from the White House emphasizing the need to continue investigations into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, increasing uncertainty across financial markets.
Global Outlook
According to JPMorgan forecasts, gold could move toward $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by central bank purchases and demand for real assets, despite current market volatility.
Markets and Commodities
U.S. Dollar Performance
The U.S. dollar has retreated relatively in recent trading sessions, supporting gold prices, as the precious metal becomes more attractive when the dollar weakens within broader market dynamics.
(No confirmed data available at this time according to Bloomberg and Reuters.)
Oil and Other Commodities
Oil prices are experiencing volatility linked to tensions in the Middle East and their impact on production, reflecting ongoing uncertainty across global commodity markets, with no reliable data yet from institutions such as Bloomberg or Reuters.
Precious Metals
Silver also advanced, reaching approximately $88 per ounce during the February 4, 2026 session, as investors leaned toward precious commodities in general.
U.S. Yields
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury appears stable without significant increases, relatively supporting higher gold prices.
(No confirmed data available at this time according to Bloomberg and Reuters.)
Central Bank Interventions
U.S. Federal Reserve Policy
In late January 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its first meeting of the year, maintaining interest rates within the 3.50% – 3.75% range after several cuts in 2025. The decision reflected a “wait-and-see” approach amid concerns about inflation remaining above target despite strong economic growth.
Impact of Rate Stabilization on Gold
Holding interest rates steady reduces pressure from a sudden rise in the dollar, thereby supporting gold. However, markets continue to anticipate upcoming meetings that may result in further rate cuts, which would act as a supportive factor for non-yielding assets such as precious metals.
Potential Leadership Changes
The U.S. President announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, but the legislative path remains unclear amid objections from members of the Senate, increasing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy.
Technical Analysis (Brief)
- Current levels: Around $5,000 per ounce
- First support level: Approximately $4,800 – $4,900
- Nearby resistance level: Around $5,300 – $5,400
The short-term trend leans toward stability with a slight bullish bias, while the medium-term trend remains volatile, supported by geopolitical tensions and monetary pressure.
(No specific technical data available at this time according to Bloomberg and Reuters.)
Forward Outlook (Neutral)
- Gold may continue to trade within the $4,800 – $5,500 range if the dollar remains weak and safe-haven demand persists across global markets.
- If the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates later in 2026, gold could gain additional momentum.
- Conversely, a sudden rise in bond yields or renewed dollar strength could pressure prices.
(No confirmed forecasts from Bloomberg or Reuters at this time.)
Conclusion
Gold prices on February 4, 2026 reflect a complex interaction between geopolitical factors, U.S. monetary policy, and shifts in global commodity markets. While the January rate hold provides temporary stability, markets remain watchful for any monetary policy changes that could further support gold in the future. Demand for safe-haven assets and relatively stable yields continue to support the metal, while a stronger dollar could reduce its attractiveness should it regain momentum.