Gold Market Analysis – February 12, 2026

Gold is trading at $4,928.19 per ounce on February 12, 2026, within an environment characterized by a delicate balance between U.S. monetary policy expectations, movements in real yields, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions across multiple regions. The precious metal’s current performance comes as markets anticipate the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, following a series of cautious remarks by Chair Jerome Powell regarding the trajectory of inflation. For broader coverage on gold and macroeconomic developments, readers can refer to DHBNA’s ongoing market analysis.

Global News and Indicators

Reference Points:

• Continued tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
• No indications of an imminent U.S. government shutdown.
• Relative slowdown in global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings.

Reports from Reuters indicate that safe-haven demand remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, despite the absence of direct escalation during the current week. Bloomberg analyses further suggest that slowing growth in the Eurozone and China is reinforcing hedging flows toward defensive assets within the broader global economy.

Nevertheless, no confirmed data have been reported so far, according to Bloomberg and Reuters, regarding exceptional developments that could trigger sharp price breakouts for gold in the short term.

Markets and Commodities

Reference Points:

• The dollar is trading near its highest level in three weeks.
• Bond yields are relatively stable.
• Oil maintains limited gains.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains at 104.3 points, exerting relative pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing near 4.18% limits downside pressure, particularly as real yields remain below their peak in the final quarter of 2025.

According to Bloomberg Economics estimates, the inverse relationship between gold and real yields persists, though it is less pronounced compared with the beginning of the year. A recent HSBC report noted that oil prices holding above $80 support moderate inflation expectations, thereby preserving gold’s appeal as a partial hedge within diversified financial markets.

Meanwhile, ANZ analysts argue that gold’s short-term direction will remain more closely tied to dollar movements than to silver or copper fluctuations in the coming weeks.

Central Bank Interventions and Monetary Policy

Reference Points:

• The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has not yet been held.
• Markets are pricing in the probability of a rate hold.
• Powell’s remarks maintain a cautious tone.

The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting has not yet taken place, and futures pricing indicates a high probability of maintaining current interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Jerome Powell stated in his recent remarks that the central bank “needs further evidence of inflation slowing before considering a rate cut.”

According to Reuters analysis, any signal of an early rate cut could push gold toward testing new record levels, while a hawkish hold accompanied by tightening signals may lead to a limited correction affecting both bullion and broader investment strategies.

An HSBC report indicates that emerging-market central banks continue diversifying their reserves toward gold, providing structural support for prices over the medium term.

Technical Analysis

• Primary Support: $4,880
• Secondary Support: $4,820
• Initial Resistance: $4,980
• Major Resistance: $5,050

The short-term trend leans toward sideways consolidation with a limited upward bias, while the medium-term outlook remains positive as long as prices hold above the $4,820 level.

Future Outlook

Based on current data, gold is trading within a sensitive equilibrium range between yield pressures and dollar strength on one side, and geopolitical tensions alongside central bank purchases on the other. Any sudden shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric or U.S. inflation data will more precisely determine the next directional move for global investors.