Gold Price Analysis and Forecast Today, 8 September

Introduction:
In the analysis and forecast of the gold price today, 8 September, spot gold surged strongly to $3,632.42 per ounce, recording a significant increase of 1.29% from the previous session’s close. This rise continues a strong bullish trend driven by an unexpected weakening of the US dollar and a sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields, amid growing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

Gold Price Analysis and Forecast Today, 8 September

Market Overview:
The Asian and European sessions saw strong buying flows into the precious metal, as investors rushed to cover short positions and capitalize on the upward momentum after breaking through psychological barriers at the $3,620 level. Trading volumes for futures contracts on the COMEX exchange were 55% higher than their 30-day average, confirming the strength of the upward move.

Key Drivers of the Rally:

1.  Unexpected Weakness in the US Dollar:
    * The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell by more than 0.9% to hit a three-week low of 103.8 points.
    *  Impact: This weakness followed US employment data that showed a slowdown in wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate, leading the market to expect a more accommodative monetary policy.

2.  Sharp Decline in US Bond Yields:
    * Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell sharply to 3.95%, down from 4.08% in the previous session.
    *  Impact: This significant drop in yields lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its investment appeal.

3.  Adjustment of Expectations Regarding Fed Policy:
    * The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in the September meeting rose to 85%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
    *  Impact: This shift in expectations increased demand for gold as a safe haven from potential volatility in financial markets.

Technical Outlook:
*  Pivot Levels:
    *  Immediate Resistance: $3,645 – $3,650 (this week’s high and technical resistance zone)
    *  Main Resistance: $3,680 (strong psychological and technical level)
    *  Immediate Support: $3,610 (21-day moving average on the daily chart)
    *  Main Support: $3,580 (previous support zone turned resistance)

*  Momentum and Technicals:
    * The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a level of 72, entering overbought territory but reflecting strong bullish momentum.
    * The price is trading above all key moving averages (50, 100, 200 days), confirming the strength of the bullish trend.

Trading Expectations Until Market Close:
*  US Session: Trading is expected to continue in the $3,620 – $3,650 range with a potential test of resistance at $3,645.
    *  Upside Scenario: A break above $3,650 could open the door to test $3,680 before the end of the session.
    *  Downside Scenario: A break below $3,610 could attract some profit-taking towards $3,590.

*  Tactical Advice:
    * Traders are advised to monitor the $3,610 level as support for buying.
    * Partial profit-taking at $3,645.
    * Stop losses below $3,590.

Conclusion:
The analysis and forecast of the gold price today, 8 September, highlight a market experiencing a fundamental shift in monetary policy expectations. Gold is benefiting from a weak dollar and falling yields, with attention now turning to US inflation data scheduled for next week. Any pullback towards $3,580 is viewed as a buying opportunity for medium-term investors given the supportive fundamentals. Trade wisely and prepare for potential volatility at new record levels.