While money fades away, gold remains a legacy for generations.
Gold markets experienced sharp volatility during the January 12, 2026 session, driven by multiple factors, most notably escalating geopolitical tensions and internal political escalation in the United States affecting the independence of the U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve). This environment has clearly influenced investor sentiment toward financial and commodity assets. As a result, the U.S. dollar weakened while gold prices surged to new record highs, despite the absence of any new official decision regarding interest rates so far.
Global News and Indicators
- Domestic political tensions in the United States:
Financial markets are facing unusual pressure following judicial threats directed at Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. These developments have intensified political risks affecting central bank independence and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold. - Currency markets:
The U.S. Dollar Index recorded a slight decline against major currencies, while the euro and the Swiss franc strengthened amid rising uncertainty across global financial markets. - Geopolitical risk environment:
At the international level, developments in the Middle East, particularly escalating tensions surrounding Iran, continue to represent an additional pressure factor supporting demand for gold as a safe haven, within a broader context of global economic uncertainty (no confirmed data available yet according to Bloomberg and Reuters).
Summary of this axis:
Current global developments reinforce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, though they are driven more by internal U.S. political factors than by traditional economic catalysts.
Markets, Commodities, and Their Impact on Gold
- Dollar performance:
The weakness of the U.S. dollar increases gold’s attractiveness to foreign investors, supporting global gold prices at historically elevated levels. - U.S. Treasury yields:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen amid political pressure on the Federal Reserve, reflecting higher opportunity costs of investing in gold compared to government securities across financial markets. - Other commodities:
Oil and silver prices have also posted gains, with silver reaching new record levels, indicating notable demand for safe-haven commodities within the broader commodities market. - Gold versus silver:
The simultaneous rise in silver and gold reinforces the view that broader forces are influencing precious metals as a whole, supporting a strong-demand scenario for non-yielding assets.
Summary of this axis:
Dollar weakness and rising yields, along with their impact on investor preferences, remain key drivers supporting gold, complemented by gains across risk-linked commodities.
Central Bank Interventions and U.S. Federal Reserve Policy
As of January 12, 2026, no new official decision has been issued following a Federal Reserve meeting regarding interest rates. Markets are therefore focusing on expectations rather than confirmed outcomes, with prevailing estimates pointing toward potential interest rate cuts later in 2026, based on weak labor data and subdued growth expectations in the global economy.
Expected impact (based on market expectations):
- According to estimates by HSBC and ANZ, analysts expect that potential interest rate cuts could lead to further U.S. dollar weakness, thereby supporting gold prices, in line with trends observed across international markets (no confirmed data available yet according to Bloomberg and Reuters).
- Markets are assessing future monetary interventions primarily through inflation and employment data, causing gold to react more to expectations than to actual policy decisions at this stage.
Summary of this axis:
U.S. Federal Reserve policy remains contingent on upcoming economic data, with market expectations of interest rate cuts playing a significant role in supporting gold prices despite the absence of an official decision.
Technical Analysis
Key levels (approximate):
- First support level: ~USD 4,550
- Second support level: ~USD 4,500
- First resistance level: ~USD 4,601
- Second resistance level: ~USD 4,639 – 4,681 (based on prior retracement levels)
Short-term trends indicate strong bullish momentum, with prices holding above key support levels.
Forward Outlook
- Continued political tension may allow gold to maintain elevated levels unless economic data emerges that strengthens the U.S. dollar or signals monetary tightening across global markets.
- Upcoming inflation data and Treasury yields will remain central determinants of price momentum.
- Demand for gold is expected to increase further should global economic and political uncertainty intensify.
Conclusion
Gold is trading at historic levels, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and declining confidence in traditional financial assets, amid heightened anticipation of U.S. monetary policy decisions. Gold demand has been repriced under conditions of political and economic uncertainty, with markets remaining in a wait-and-see mode until official Federal Reserve decisions are announced.