Gold Market Analysis – February 17, 2026

Gold markets on February 17, 2026 are retreating from levels near $5,000 per ounce to approximately $4,916.75, amid weakening safe-haven sentiment in gold as the U.S. Dollar Index advances and investors await the upcoming minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) before taking definitive positions.

Analytical Axes

Global News & Indicators

1. Geopolitical tensions: Global market indicators show a relative easing of tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside renewed peace initiatives between Russia and Ukraine, limiting gold’s momentum as a safe-haven asset.
2. Market liquidity: Thin liquidity conditions due to Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and the U.S. Presidents Day holiday contributed to a sharp corrective move in gold prices.
3. Demand for safe assets: According to a Reuters report, the strong rally in gold demand has temporarily paused as investors await upcoming monetary signals from the Federal Reserve.

Axis Assessment: Current global developments lean toward price pressure, driven by easing geopolitical risks and constrained liquidity conditions.

Markets & Commodities

1. U.S. Dollar: The Dollar Index has strengthened, exerting competitive pressure on gold by making the dollar-denominated metal more expensive for holders of other currencies across global markets.
2. U.S. Yields: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has stabilized above 4%, supporting income-generating assets relative to gold, which offers no yield.
3. Other commodities: Brent crude trades around $68–70 per barrel, while silver has also declined, indicating a commodity environment increasingly sensitive to dollar strength and softer demand dynamics within the broader global economy.

Axis Assessment: Market and commodity data reflect a relatively balanced macro environment; however, currency strength and elevated bond yields exert proportional pressure on gold.

Central Bank Interventions

U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting:

• As of February 17, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has not announced any rate changes since its January 27–28 meeting, during which the Federal Reserve maintained the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%.
• Markets are awaiting the January meeting minutes, scheduled for release this week, to clarify the trajectory of monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut (anticipated in June).
• Economists expect the Federal Reserve and other central banks to maintain rates at upcoming meetings before considering any subsequent adjustments.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Gold:

• A steady-rate stance constrains gold’s short-term purchasing momentum, as it reduces the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets, while expectations of future rate cuts provide potential medium-term support.

Brief Technical Analysis

• Key support levels: Approximately $4,900, followed by $4,850
• Primary resistance levels: $5,000, then $5,100–5,150
• Short-term trend: Bearish with fluctuations between support levels
• Medium-term trend: Stable to moderately bullish if supportive Federal Reserve data emerges

(Quantitative technical analysis based on current price levels without investment recommendations.)

Forward Outlook

• Upcoming data—particularly the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and U.S. inflation readings (CPI and PCE)—are likely to determine gold’s trajectory over the next two weeks.
• Should inflation data show further moderation, the probability of rate cuts may increase, supporting gold prices.
• If labor market and inflation data remain resilient, dollar strength may persist, temporarily limiting gold’s upside momentum across financial economy and markets.

(Analytical projections based on available data and estimates, without direct investment recommendations.)

Conclusion

Gold prices at $4,916.75 on February 17, 2026 reflect a complex market environment shaped by dollar strength and limited liquidity on one hand, and anticipation of monetary policy developments on the other. The current strength of the U.S. dollar, alongside elevated bond yields, constitutes a primary source of pressure, while expectations of future rate cuts may later provide structural support. This report highlights a balance between bullish and bearish factors, emphasizing that forthcoming data will be decisive in determining the short- to medium-term direction of gold and global markets.